ETHIOPIA

Federal troops and Tigray regional forces returned to front-line fighting in Amhara-Tigray border areas last Wednesday, shattering the March ceasefire. This week federal forces conducted an airstrike on Tigray’s capital Mekelle and Tigray forces launched an offensive in northern Amhara region. Fighting spread on Thursday to north-western Tigray, with Tigray’s authorities saying Eritrea’s military was part of a major federal offensive, and fronts also opened on Tigray’s southern boundary with Amhara and on the Ethiopia-Sudan border. Crisis Group expert William Davison says the return to hostilities follows the hardening of positions on both sides in recent weeks, notably over whether the African Union or Kenya should lead the peace process and Tigray’s demand that the federal government lift a blockade before talks begin. With the risk that fighting protracts into a period of sustained conflict, the UN, African Union, European Union and U.S. envoys should press both sides to de-escalate. Neither is likely to achieve their political objectives on the battlefield

LIBYA

Armed groups supportive of Sirte-based Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha tried to enter Tripoli on Saturday in a failed attempt to remove the rival interim government led by Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dabaiba. Pro-Dabaiba units managed to repel the attack, leaving 32 dead and around 160 wounded. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says that while violence has subsided, tensions between the two camps remain high. A lack of domestic consensus on a way out of the political crisis that was sparked by the appointment of the rival government in March 2022, combined with the absence of a new UN special representative for Libya who could help mediate, risks fuelling a new round of violence in the near future..